Posts

Texas Lynchings and Tenor Saw

After lynching "stopped" motor vehicles were a common way for whites to kill blacks in America without putting the KKK label on the crime. Lonely straight road, hit and run. Was "common assault". East Texas had one of the highest lynching rates across the US South. This is common knowledge all over the world. In fact, lynching was still taking place in Texas as late as the 1998, when James Byrd Jr was beaten and dragged behind a truck until dead in Jasper, Texas. As Dylan sang - "Many martyrs fell" -RG In response to: Tenor Saw: still cutting edge

Crime Monster

This crime monster has been growing for 50 years. We won't tame it in a year or two. The best we can do for now is control it with intelligence information. Jamaica is small, everybody knows who is doing what. With time we will solve some of the socio-economic issues like growth and land reform. Then "we good". -RG In response to: Samuda fears violence will disrupt redevelopment plans for Red Hills Road

Pit Bull Attacks and Dangerous Dogs

Pit bulls are not in the same category as rottweilers. Rotts are herding dogs, bred to drive and guard cattle like a German shepherd. A pit bull is a fighting dog, bred to "bait" bulls and bears. A Pit bull locks his jaws when he bites and is unable to open them for some time. There is a tool sold to open pit bulls jaw when they lock, it is called a break-stick. I have never heard of a German shepherd or Rottweiler break-stick. Ban pit bulls. Simple We are talking about bad owners with a vicious fighting dog. Not you playing with your mentally healthy pets. Many terriers are determined biters. They never needed a break-stick in mass circulation until pit bulls strarted getting into the wrong hands. Their bite reflex is too strong when they are in "hunting mode". When trained (or abused) by these bad owners, even just in "training-play" they are reinforcing a genetic breed instinct that is just too strong for the dog to overcome. In effect, the d...

GOJ Policy Rate

They don't have much room left to lower the signal interest rate, so they have chosen not to defend the dollar instead. The inflation makes JMD loans cheaper to encourage credit activity, and the devaluation makes exports and JMD assets cheaper to boost exports and FDI. As long as inflation is down, do they really care that much about the dollar? The banks are making record profits, GOJ is betting that they won't try and raise JMD loan rates. So this way GOJ can keep their powder dry with the USD reserves and they still have 2% to play with on the signal rate. They saw what happened when the US fed rate went to zero and they basically have to throw up their hands after that. -RG In response to: BoJ governor encourages consumers to 'shop around' for low interest rate loans

JMD USD Devaluation

There seems to have been a glut of food (overproduction) recently which kept inflation low. So the gov't can "steal" a little devaluation and economic activity without the inflation cost (for a while at least). Why would they spend reserves to defend the dollar if they are getting what they want with devaluation? Cheaper exports, cheaper local assets lower cost of local debt (basically lower interest rates). All this should mean higher export and FDI activity, higher credit and business activity. Non dollarized (USD) savers see low inflation, and the rest are dollarized or have inflation-protected savings. Maybe in the future they won't bother to defend the dollar when prices are low. -RG In response to: Thursday, August 23, 2018

BOJ Reserves and Devaluation

I'm starting to realize that It's not so much that GOJ is trying to devalue the dollar. It's more that they don't care enough to spend reserves to defend it. They don't care because devaluation will get them what they need. Inflation eats into the banks JMD loan profit, and loosens monetary policy, which is like the lowering of interest rates that everybody has been crying for. The banks are making massive currency trading profits. A lot of Jamaicans save in USD. When they sell or transfer a little from their US acct to their JMD account they don't look at the price they get. The dollar is $137, the banks are transferring at $132. That's a HUGE spread! Especially when you think of the total trading volume across all those transactions. For so long, both the GOJ and opposition were crying for lower bank profits off the backs of Jamaicans. The Clarke administration might get the credit for being the one to actually do something about it. -RG In respon...

Election Fitness

That's right. It's a massive task and a toll on the body to win an election. You haffi fit!. Andrew had the support in 2011. Everybody was saying it's young people time, but he wasn't fully ready. The leadership was thrust upon him, and he just didn't know how much effort and "running up and down" it would take to unseat someone like Portia who can pack a political meeting anywhere she goes. She "ran circles around him" in 2011. The 2016 Andrew was very different. Notice Seaga's comments at the victory speech. He said that in 2016 Andrew was "acting like a leader" and he "circled the island 3 times." He learned his lesson. He will be fit and ready next year when he calls it. -RG In response to: No election now, says Holness